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aktualizováno: 21.04.2022 06:07:53 

Aleš Bulíř

Work in progress

I'm working on several papers with various people (ordered here alphabetically). I usually work on more papers than I can handle, both physically and mentally, as I routinely underestimate the time it takes to finalize a paper. It's not really funny, and certainly not for my co-authors, but I find it hard to resist starting a new paper every once in a while...

Martin Čihák. Our papers deal with empirical estimates of Taylor rules and policy communication of the European Central Bank. They are out as IMF working papers and currently submitted in journals. For Martin's papers see www.ssrn.com/author=735014.

David-Jan Jansen. With David-Jan and Martin we try to explain readability of inflation reports in a sample of inflation targeting countries. For David-Jans's papers see http://members.casema.nl/davidjanjansen/.

Jan Vlček. We are working on empirical papers on the transmission mechanism of the (policy) interest rate along the yield curve, focusing on emerging and low-income countries. We now try to extend our last paper to (marginal) lending rates.

Dániel Baksa and Dyna Heng. We are working on semi-structural, policy-oriented models that encompass both monetary and fiscal policy reaction functions. We are working on a few country applications: Cambodia and Morocco.

 

Work in progress (and available for comments):

Dániel Baksa and Aleš Bulíř, "Morocco: Moving to an Inflation Targeting RegimeStarting in 2014, the Bank Al-Maghrib began amending its analytical framework and improving processes to support monetary policy decision-making. Simulations using alternative modeling frameworks show that the economy would indeed benefit from a more flexible exchange rate and active monetary policy guided by a formal inflation target. Output and inflation stabilization gains under the float and IT more than offset the additional costs of exchange rate and interest volatility. The BAM remains committed to an eventual switch to a floating exchange rate and IT, however, the switch will be challenging for a number of reasons. The policy reaction function will need to be refined as the policymaker’s past behavior under the fixed exchange rate regime will provide limited guidance for the new regime, given the historically limited use of interest rate changes. The COVID pandemic, Ukraine conflict, and resulting shifts in world demand for Moroccan exports will have had profound, long-lasting impact on economic growth and employment, necessitating a thorough review of the relationships embedded in the forecasting and policy analysis system.