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aktualizováno: 09.11.2020 04:09:37 

Aleš Bulíř

Work in progress

I'm working on several papers with various people (ordered here alphabetically). I usually work on more papers than I can handle, both physically and mentally, as I routinely underestimate the time it takes to finalize a paper. It's not really funny, and certainly not for my co-authors, but I find it hard to resist starting a new paper every once in a while...

Martin Čihák. Our papers deal with empirical estimates of Taylor rules and policy communication of the European Central Bank. They are out as IMF working papers and currently submitted in journals. For Martin's papers see www.ssrn.com/author=735014.

David-Jan Jansen. With David-Jan and Martin we try to explain readability of inflation reports in a sample of inflation targeting countries. For David-Jans's papers see http://members.casema.nl/davidjanjansen/.

Jan Vlček. We are working on empirical papers on the transmission mechanism of the (policy) interest rate along the yield curve, focusing on emerging and low-income countries. We now try to extend our last paper to (marginal) lending rates.

Dániel Baksa and Dyna Heng. We are working on semi-structural, policy-oriented models that encompass both monetary and fiscal policy reaction functions. We are working on a few country applications: Cambodia and Morocco.

 

Work in progress (and available for comments):

Dániel Baksa, Aleš Bulíř, and Dyna Heng, "A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to CambodiaThe paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. Our canonical model is adapted to Cambodia and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Complemented with near-term forecasting tools and expert judgment, the dynamics of the model helps to inform policymakers about medium-term transmission channels and thus guide policy advice. 

 

Bulíř, Aleš, Jan Vlček, "Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield CurveDoes monetary policy react systematically to macroeconomic innovations? In a sample of 16 countries – operating under various monetary regimes – we find that monetary policy decisions, as expressed in yield curve movements, do react to macroeconomic innovations and these reactions reflect the monetary policy regime. While we find evidence of the primacy of the price stability objective in inflationtargeting countries, the links to inflation and the output gap are generally weaker and less systematic in money-targeting and multipleobjective countries.

VAR results are available here.

 

Bulíř, Aleš; Laxton, Doug; Wang, Hou, "Does Inflation-Forecast Targeting Pay Off??"Inflation-forecast targeting regime entails revealing the central bank's internal conditional macroeconomic forecast, including the expected policy rate path (Svensson 1997, 2000; Clinton and others, 2015). We find that the payoff is better anchored inflation expectations.

 

 

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