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Aleš Bulíř

Teaching references

Here are links to various papers used in courses that I teach. Papers are listed under courses, so finding the correct one may require some searching unless you know where to look.

I. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies (MERP)

(1) Monetary regimes

Blanchard, Olivier, 2011, “The Future of Macroeconomic Policy: Nine Tentative Conclusions,” iMFdirect online blog, March 13. Download here.
Ghosh, Atish and Jonathan Ostry, 2009, “Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime” Finance & Development, Vol. 46 (December). Download here.
Stone, Mark R., and Ashok J. Bhundia, 2004, “A New Taxonomy of Monetary Regimes,” IMF Working Paper No. 04/191 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). Download here.

(2) Transparency and credibility

Woodford, Michael, 2005, “Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness,” in The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future, a symposium sponsored by The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 25–27. Download here.

Šmídková, Kateřina, and Aleš Bulíř, 2007, “Striving to Be ‘Clearly Open’ and ‘Crystal Clear’: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB,” Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 57, No. 11–12., pp.540–57. Download here.

Dennis, Richard, and John C. Williams, 2007, “Monetary Policy, Transparency, and Credibility: Conference Summary,” FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007-12 (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco). Download here.

(3) Taylor rules

Woodford, Michael, 2001, "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," The American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 2001), pp. 232-237. Download here.

Sofia Bauducco, Aleš Bulíř, and Martin Čihák, 2008, "Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability," IMF Working paper.  Download here.

Marcela Meirelles Aurelio, 2005, "Do We Really Know How Inflation Targeters Set Interest Rates?" Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Working Paper. Donwload here

(4) Monetary transmission mechanism

Peter N. Ireland, 2005, "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Download here.

Prachi, Mishra; Peter Montiel, and Antonio Spilimbergo, 2010, "Monetary Transmission in Low Income Countries," IMF Working Paper No. 10/223. Download here.

Roberto Billi and George Kahn, 2008, "What is the Optimal Rate of Inflation?" Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Download here.

Berg, Andrew, Douglas Laxton, and Philippe Karam, 2006, "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis--Overview" and "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis--A How-To Guide." These two IMF working papers can ve downloaded here and here.

(5) Experience with inflation targeting

Francesco Giavazzi and Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006, "An Evaluation of Swedish Monetary Policy between 1995 and 2005," Riksbank. Download here.

International Monetary Fund, 2006, "Inflation Targeting and the IMF," (Washington, DC: IMF). Download here.

(6) Modeling UIP under floating and pegged exchange rates

Beneš, Jaromír, Hurník, Jaromír, and Vávra, David, 2008, "Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting: Modeling the Exchange Rate in Reduced-Form New Keynesian Models," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 58, Issue 3-4. Download here.

(7) Equilibrium exchange rates

Driver, Rebecca, and Peter Westaway, 2004, "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England Working Paper. Download here.

Jan Babecký, Aleš Bulíř, and Kateřina Šmídková, 2008, "Sustainable Exchange Rates when Trade Winds Are Plentiful," National Institute Economic Review. Download here.

Aleš Bulíř and Kateřina Šmídková, 2007, "Fast Sailing Toward the Euro: Dangers of the Lee Shore," in: Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets and Other Developing Countries, edited by Nicoletta Batini. Download here.


II. Macroeconomic Management and Financial Sector Issues

 (1) Currency and banking crises [a good overview of this topic are the Reinhart and Rogoff NBER papers that will eventually come out as a book]

Reinhart, Carmen M.,  and Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008a, “Is the 2007 U.S. Subprime Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison,” American Economic Review, Vol. 98, No. 2, pp. 339–44. Download here.
————, 2008b, “The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt,” NBER Working Paper No. 13946 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

————, 2008c, “This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,” NBER Working Paper No. 13882 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

III. Macroeconomic Management and Fiscal Policy (MFP)

(1) Fiscal transmission

Baunsgaard, T., and Steven A. Symansky, 2009, "Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Staff Position Note SPN/09/23. Download here.

Spilimbergo, Antonio, Steve Symansky, and Martin Schindler, 2009, "Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Staff Position Note SPN/09/11. Download here.

Fedelino, Annalisa, and others, 2009, “Computing Cyclically Adjusted Balances and Automatic Stabilizers,” Technical Notes and Manuals, International Monetary Fund. Download here.

Barro, R.J. and C.J. Redlick, 2009, “Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes,” Harvard University. Download here.

Almunia, Miguel, Agustín S. Bénétrix, Barry Eichengreen, Kevin H. O'Rourke, and Gisela Rua, 2009, "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons," Institute for International Integration Studies. Download here.

Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E., and Vegh, C., 2009, "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?" University of Maryland. Download here.

Bulíř, Aleš, and Andrew Swiston, 2009, "Emerging Market Countries Don’t Believe in Fiscal Stimuli: Should We Blame Ricardo?", Czech Journal of Economics and Finance. Download here.

(2) Debt sustainability

IMF, 2009, "The State of Public Finances Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor: November 2009," IMF Staff Positions Note SPN/09/25. Download here.

Celasun, Oya, Xavier Debrun, and Jonathan David Ostry, "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Paper No. 06/67. Download here.

(3) Fiscal rules

IMF, 2009, "Fiscal Rules: Anchoring Expectations for Sustainable Public Finances." Download here.

Michel Philippe, Leopold von Thadden, and Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2006, "Debt Stabilizing Fiscal Rules," ECB Working Paper No. 576. Download here.

Kopits, George, 2001, “Fiscal Rules: Useful Policy Framework or Unnecessary Ornament?” IMF Working Paper 01/145. Download here.

Koen, Vincent, and Paul van den Noord, 2005, “Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe: One-Off Measures and Creative Accounting,” OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 417. Download here.

Tanner, Evan, 2003, "Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Policy: Frank Ramsey Meets Gramm-Rudman-Hollings," IMF Working Paper No. 03/220. Download here.

(4) Interaction between fiscal and monetary policy

Leeper, E., 2010, "Monetary Science, Fiscal Alchemy." FRB of Kansas City. Download here.

Laurens, Bernard, and Enrique de la Piedra, 1998, “Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies,” IMF Working Paper 98/25. Download here.

(5) Debt management

Cassard, M., Folkerts-Landau, D., 1997, "Sovereign Debt: Managing the Risks," Finance & Development. Download here.

Carlos Medeiros, Carlos, Polan, Magdalena, and Ramlogan, Parmeshwar, 2007, “A Primer on Sovereign Debt Buybacks and Swaps," IMF Working Paper IMFWP/07/58. Download here.

IMF, 2003, "Guidelines for Public Debt Management." Download here.

IV. Financial Programming (the long course using Turkey as the case study)

(1) Economic growth and growth accounting in Turkey 

Sumru G. Altuğ, Alpay Filiztekin, and Şevket Pamuk, 2007, "The Sources of Long-term Economic Growth for Turkey, 1880-2005," CEPR Discussion Paper No. 6463. Download here.

(2) Money demand in Turkey

Irfan Civcir, 2003, "Money demand, financial liberalization and currency substitution in Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 30 No. 5. Download here.
(3) Export and import elasticities

Abdelhak S. Senhadji and Claudio E. Montenegro, 1999, "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 46, No. 3.  Download here.

Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998, "Time Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 2.  Download here.

IMF, 2007, "Exchange Rates and the Adjustment of External Imbalances," World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3.  Download here.
Bulir, 2004, "Mexico's External Trade: Recent Developments and Policies," 2005 Selected Issues Paper for the Article IV Consultations with Mexico. Download here.

(4) Stabilization policies and exchange rate regimes

Sergio Rrebelo and Carlos Végh, 1995, "Real Effects of Exchange Rate Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theorie," NBER Working Paper 5197. Download here.

Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 1997, :HETERODOX INFLATION STABILIZATION IN ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, AND ISRAEL: A Historical Review and Some Stylized Facts," C.R.D.E. Working Paper 0797. Download here.

A. Javier Hamann, 2001, "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Critical Look at the Stylized Facts," IMF Staff Papers. Download here.

A. Javier Hamann, 2003, "Beating Inflation. The Importance of Luck, Timing, and Political Institutions," Finance & Development. Download here.

A. Javier Hamann, 2001, "Exchange Rate–Based Inflation Stabilization," IMF Research Bulletin. Download here.

(5) Development aid

Aleš Bulíř and A. Javier Hamann, 2008, "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?" World Development. Download here.

Cristina Arellano, Aleš Bulíř, Timothy Lane, and Leslie Lipschitz, 2009, "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics. Download here.

Aleš Bulíř and Timothy Lane, 2004, "Aid and Fiscal Management," Finance & Development. Download here.

José Tavares, 2003, "Does foreign aid corrupt?" Economics Letters, Vol. 79, pp. 99–106. Download here.

Oya Celasun and Jan Walliser, 2008, "Managing Aid Surprises," Finance & Development. Download here.


V. Monetary Policy Analysis (MPA)


(2) Nowcasting

Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson, 1991, "A Probability Model of the Coincident Economic Indicators", in Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records, edited by K. Lahiri and G. Moore, Cambridge University Press. Download here.

Arnoštová, Kateřina, David Havrlant, Luboš Růžička and Peter Tóth, 2010, "Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators," CNB WP 12/2010. Download here.

Download here.