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aktualizováno: 17.01.2020 23:13:54 

Aleš Bulíř

Work in progress

I'm working on several papers with various people (ordered here alphabetically). I usually work on more papers than I can handle, both physically and mentally, as I routinely underestimate the time it takes to finalize a paper. It's not really funny, and certainly not for my co-authors, but I find it hard to resist starting a new paper every once in a while...

Martin Čihák. Our papers deal with empirical estimates of Taylor rules and policy communication of the European Central Bank. They are out as IMF working papers and currently submitted in journals. For Martin's papers see

David-Jan Jansen. With David-Jan and Martin we try to explain readability of inflation reports in a sample of inflation targeting countries. For David-Jans's papers see

Jan Vlček. We are working on empirical papers on the transmission mechanism of the (policy) interest rate along the yield curve, focusing on emerging and low-income countries. We now try to extend our last paper to (marginal) lending rates.


Work in progress (and available for comments):

Bulíř, Aleš, Jan Vlček, "Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield CurveDoes monetary policy react systematically to macroeconomic innovations? In a sample of 16 countries – operating under various monetary regimes – we find that monetary policy decisions, as expressed in yield curve movements, do react to macroeconomic innovations and these reactions reflect the monetary policy regime. While we find evidence of the primacy of the price stability objective in inflationtargeting countries, the links to inflation and the output gap are generally weaker and less systematic in money-targeting and multipleobjective countries.

VAR results are available here.


Bulíř, Aleš, Jan Vlček, "Monetary Transmission: Are Emerging Market and Low Income Countries Different?We use two alternative representations of the yield curve to test the functioning of the interest rate transmission mechanism along the yield curve based on government paper in a sample of emerging market and low-income countries. We find a robust link from shortterm policy and interbank rates to longer-term bond yields. Two policy implications emerge. First, the presence of well-developed secondary financial markets does not seem to affect transmission of short term rates along the yield curve. Second, the strength of the transmission mechanism seems to be affected by the choice of the monetary regime: countries with a credible inflation targeting regime seem to have “better behaved” yield curves than those with other monetary regimes.

Individual country results are here.

Bulíř, Aleš; Laxton, Doug; Wang, Hou, "Does Inflation-Forecast Targeting Pay Off??"Inflation-forecast targeting regime entails revealing the central bank's internal conditional macroeconomic forecast, including the expected policy rate path (Svensson 1997, 2000; Clinton and others, 2015). We find that the payoff is better anchored inflation expectations.